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Primary Authority
Laws, regulations, tax rules, agency guidance, plan documents, regulatory requirements, and other first-party materials.
The FMB Framework
A repeatable process from financial claim to useful conclusion.
FMB does not begin with a verdict. We begin by defining the decision, establishing the evidence, and identifying the variables that could materially change the answer.
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Define the Claim
Turn broad financial advice into a specific question that can actually be tested.
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Understand Who It Applies To
Identify the income, tax, household, liquidity, location, and goal-related facts that can change the result.
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Establish the Rules & Evidence
Start with laws, regulations, official guidance, original data, research, plan documents, and other authoritative evidence.
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Make the Assumptions Visible
Separate known facts from estimates involving returns, inflation, taxes, costs, time horizons, and behavior.
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Run the Numbers & Compare Tradeoffs
Compare realistic outcomes across taxes, cash flow, risk, liquidity, flexibility, and opportunity cost.
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Reach a Clear Verdict
State what the evidence supports, who the conclusion applies to, and what facts could reasonably change it.
Evidence Comes First
The closer a source is to the rule or data, the more weight it receives.
Different questions require different sources. FMB prioritizes evidence that is authoritative, traceable, current, and appropriate for the claim being tested.
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Official Data
Government statistics, regulatory filings, official datasets, and published figures closest to the underlying financial question.
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Original Research
Peer-reviewed studies, academic research, and transparent original analysis with methods that can be evaluated.
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Qualified Context
Credible professional, institutional, and technical analysis used to explain or contextualize stronger underlying evidence.
Reader stories, surveys, and public discussion can identify useful questions, but they are not treated as proof of a universal financial claim.
Facts, Assumptions & Scenarios
Known facts and future estimates should never be presented as the same thing.
Many financial decisions depend on variables no one can know in advance. FMB separates what can be established today from what must be assumed, then tests how sensitive the conclusion is to those assumptions.
Known Facts
Current tax limits, account rules, plan terms, interest rates, transaction costs, filing requirements, and other information that can be established from current evidence.
Assumptions
Future investment returns, inflation, salary growth, tax rates, home appreciation, behavior, timing, and other inputs that require a reasonable estimate.
Scenario testing
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Conservative
Tests the decision when important conditions are less favorable.
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Base Case
Uses reasonable central assumptions for a practical comparison.
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Favorable
Shows how the result changes when conditions work more strongly in the strategy’s favor.
Why this matters: If a small change in an assumption reverses the conclusion, that sensitivity belongs in the answer.
Compare the Whole Decision
The biggest projected number is not automatically the best financial choice.
FMB compares the dimensions that affect how a decision works in real life—not only the headline return.
Return
Expected growth, yield, savings, or other measurable financial upside.
Taxes
Current and future tax treatment, deductions, credits, and tax-location effects.
Liquidity
How easily money can be accessed when circumstances or priorities change.
Risk
Market, concentration, leverage, sequence, behavioral, and other material risks.
Flexibility
How much optionality the decision preserves for future choices and changing goals.
Opportunity Cost
What must be delayed, reduced, or given up when capital is committed elsewhere.
A financially optimal answer on paper can still be a poor decision if it ignores liquidity, risk, taxes, or the household using it.
The FMB Verdict Framework
A clear verdict without pretending every financial question is binary.
FMB uses a five-level verdict scale so readers can see whether a claim fails, holds up, or depends on specific facts that materially change the answer.
Busted
The central claim does not survive the evidence as defined.
Mostly False
There is some truth behind the advice, but the broader claim is misleading or leaves out important conditions.
It Depends
Meaningful facts or assumptions can reasonably change the answer.
Mostly True
The evidence generally supports the claim, with important qualifications or exceptions.
Confirmed
Strong evidence consistently supports the claim as it has been defined.
“It Depends” is a starting point, not an ending.
When the answer depends on the reader’s circumstances, FMB should identify the variables, thresholds, or assumptions that drive the difference.
Review, Updates & Corrections
A methodology only works if the final answer stays traceable and current.
Before publication—and again when material rules or evidence change—FMB checks whether the conclusion still follows from the underlying facts and assumptions.
Review the Reasoning
Confirm the evidence, assumptions, and comparison actually support the stated conclusion.
Check the Numbers
Recheck calculations, thresholds, dates, limits, and the period to which they apply.
Make Sources Traceable
Connect material claims to evidence readers can identify and evaluate for themselves.
Keep It Current
Update or correct content when rules, evidence, calculations, or other material facts change.
What This Means for Readers
The goal is not more financial information. It is a more useful decision.
A strong FMB analysis should help you understand the reasoning, see the limits, and identify which facts matter most for the decision in front of you.
Understand the Reasoning
See how the evidence, assumptions, calculations, and tradeoffs connect to the conclusion.
Understand the Limits
Know which circumstances, estimates, exceptions, or future changes could alter the answer.
Make a Better-Informed Decision
Use the analysis to identify the questions, thresholds, and tradeoffs worth examining in your own situation.
FMB provides general financial education, not individualized financial, tax, legal, investment, accounting, or insurance advice. Read the full Disclaimer